Tag Archives: PPP

PPP Final Poll: Ted Cruz Over Dewhurst 52-42

By Gary P Jackson

Looks like all the vile, nasty ads that David Dewhurst has been running for weeks are working well!

In the final poll going into Tuesday’s election, Ted Cruz has a ten point lead over David Dewhurst. If that lead holds it may be one of the Tea Party’s most impressive victories yet. And a victory for the American people.

Polling consistently finds that more Texas voters consider themselves Tea Party people, than in any other state. Among the Tea Party folks, Ted Cruz absolutely destroys Dewhurst 75-22.

PP’s final poll of the Republican Senate runoff in Texas finds Ted Cruz opening up a 52-42 lead, an increase from our survey two weeks ago that found him ahead 49-44.

Cruz’s victory is driven by 4 things: the Tea Party, the enthusiasm of his supporters, a generational divide within the Texas Republican ranks, and the lack of regard the party base currently holds for Rick Perry.

Cruz is ahead by a whopping 75-22 margin with Tea Party voters, more than making up for a 56-39 deficit to Dewhurst with voters who don’t consider themselves members of that movement. There has been too much of a tendency to ascribe any Republican primary upset over the last few years to Tea Party voters, but this is one case where it’s well justified.

Cruz has a 63-33 advantage with voters who describe themselves as ‘very excited’ about voting in Tuesday’s runoff election.

More here.

Don’t let this big lead fool you though. We need everyone to get out there and vote on Tuesday. A blow out win by Cruz will send a strong message to the Republican Elite™!

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National Poll: Sarah Palin Crushes Mitt Romney Among GOP Base Voters

By Gary P Jackson

In the latest polling from PPP, the Daily Kos’ official pollster, Sarah Palin is tied with Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination. Both capture 16% of a very crowded field. Sarah leads the field considerably among Conservatives though. Between those who describe themselves as “somewhat Conservative” and “very Conservative” it’s Sarah Palin 35% Mitt Romney 30%.

This is bad news for Romney as the base of the Republican Party is Conservative. So is most of the nation according to decades worth of polling.

PPP also proclaims the only way Romney [or Pawlenty] can win is if the Rapture actually occurs. And they have the poll numbers to back this up!

The poll also shows that it doesn’t matter if Michele Bachmann runs or not, the Republican nomination is Sarah Palin’s to lose.

It also shows, as does every other poll, that Newt Gingrich’s campaign is D.O.A.. Whatever support he may have once has has collapsed.

PPP’s first national poll looking at the Republican Presidential race since Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they wouldn’t run finds Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin in a tie at the top with 16% each. Tim Pawlenty at 13% and Herman Cain at 12% are also in double digits with Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul each at 9%, and Jon Huntsman at 4% rounding out the field.

Romney’s support is built on moderate and center right Republicans, while Palin’s winning the most conservative faction of the party. With moderates Romney’s at 26% with only Pawlenty at 15% also reaching double digits and Palin in third at 8%. With ‘somewhat conservative‘ voters Romney likewise leads with 19% to 15% each for Pawlenty and Palin. But with voters identifying as ‘very conservative‘ Romney finds himself well back in 5th place at 11% with Palin leading the way at 20%, followed by Cain at 15%, Bachmann at 13%, and Pawlenty at 12%.

If Palin doesn’t run Romney leads with 20% to 13% each for Gingrich, Bachmann, and Pawlenty, 12% for Cain, and 11% for Paul. It may seem surprising that Palin not running would take Romney from a tie to a 7 point lead. But that’s because most of Palin’s support goes to people who poll at only single digits when she’s in the picture. 22% of Palin voters say they would go for Bachmann, 17% to Gingrich, and 15% each to Romney and Paul. Cain and Pawlenty, already in double digits even with Palin in the field, each pick up only 2% of her supporters so Romney gains ground on them with her out of the picture.

This poll provides more evidence for the collapse of Newt Gingrich. In addition to having just single digit support more primary voters (44%) now express an unfavorable opinion of him than have a positive one (39%).

One game changer that could help Romney and Pawlenty’s prospects for the nomination? The Rapture. 18% of GOP primary voters believe it will occur in their lifetimes and 31% of them support Palin to 15% for Romney, 11% for Cain and Gingrich, and 10% for Pawlenty. Let’s say that Harold Camping’s revised projection of October for the event comes true and that all the Republicans who think it’s coming go up. With those voters taken out of the equation Romney leads with 16% while Pawlenty moves into second at 14%, and Palin and Cain tie for 3rd at 13% each.

Sarah Palin also has, by far, the highest favorability rating among the bunch at 61%.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Newt Gingrich?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?

Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%

Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%

Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

PPP also asked respondents if the Rapture occurred, would Sarah Palin or Barack Obama go to heaven. Most think Sarah would. Most think Obama would not.

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Sarah Palin’s Approval Continues To Soar Above Other 2012 Contenders

By Gary P Jackson

The latest from Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows a tie between the top Republican contenders for the 2012 nomination. At this early stage, that sounds about right. We are two years away from the actual election, and 16-18 months from the primaries. These polls are mostly entertainment for us political junkies, and damned near meaningless in real life, however, we do see trends that do matter.

Past the horse race, these trends are quite telling. From the internals of the polling:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?

Favorable….. 76%
Unfavorable .. 17%
Not sure …… 7%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable…… 65%
Unfavorable…. 19%
Not sure …… 16%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?

Favorable…. .62%
Unfavorable . .14%
Not sure….. .25%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?

Favorable…… 57%
Unfavorable … 21%
Not sure ….. 22%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?

Favorable…… 36%
Unfavorable … 25%
Not sure …… 40%

Now these are Republican voters, so this is important. Sarah has consistently had the highest approval among Republicans going back to the first polling on this. Always in the 70’s. What has happened though, is her unfavorables have dropped significantly. And when you look at the “not sures“, they have been reduced to almost nothing.

On the other hand, Mitt Romney, the establishment’s show pony has taken a big hit. His favorables have dropped below 60 percent. He is 19 points behind Sarah. Romney’s unfavorables have climbed to the highest among the group of serious contenders. (Ron Paul was included in the poll, presumably for comic relief.)

It looks like Romney’s loss is Newt Gingrich’s gain. Newt, like Sarah, has been out there and actually engaging in the public discourse, while Romney has been silent on the topics of the day. People today want real leaders, and Romney simply doesn’t know how.

The interesting part in all of this is the fact that Newt, Huckabee, and especially Romney are all salivating at the thought of sitting in the Oval Office, while Sarah Palin has remained quite uncommitted, choosing instead to focus entirely on November 2010. In our mind, this is WHY Sarah has the highest favorability rating, and why she has always been perceived as a true leader.

She has her priorities right.

She’s also right on the issues, which certainly doesn’t hurt.

In contrast, latest polling show that Obama is continuing to crash and burn. At this point anyone with a pulse, and an R beside their name, will beat Obama in 2012.

Today’s Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, which is based on a three day averaging of data, has Obama’s approval at only 42 percent, with his disapproval at a whopping 51 percent. This is the lowest of his presidency.

Palin 76 Obama 42.

You tell me how this ends.

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